Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.091070 12.403075 13.899384 15.753200 18.018558 20.738282 24.317023
2024-10-20 9.110778 10.620397 12.462609 14.931553 18.246282 22.693454 29.407702
2024-10-27 7.912815 9.467985 11.450121 14.250574 18.269235 24.131751 34.037118
2024-11-03 7.886657 9.740316 12.233345 16.003121 21.922521 31.667414 51.348414
2024-11-10 7.558680 9.546961 12.326761 16.749861 24.206852 37.806646 70.325970
2024-11-17 6.892171 8.806309 11.537111 16.002318 23.832695 38.991728 79.352079
2024-11-24 6.496875 8.409271 11.200589 15.910176 24.562696 42.591560 97.989299
2024-12-01 6.125074 8.011406 10.816448 15.674227 24.961019 45.623054 118.633843
2024-12-08 5.844867 7.724644 10.572478 15.636871 25.728533 49.841936 150.583432
2024-12-15 5.643379 7.539005 10.467268 15.823601 26.991610 55.949632 206.170353
2024-12-22 5.349509 7.191228 10.068779 15.421157 26.892036 58.213868 247.744597
2024-12-29 5.153248 6.982010 9.880688 15.388974 27.625023 63.459797 337.920572
2025-01-05 4.839053 6.583132 9.368420 14.721345 26.843453 63.752368 391.449194
2025-01-12 4.538246 6.191233 8.844725 13.984397 25.781421 62.712140 430.418546
2025-01-19 4.282461 5.858786 8.402444 13.368606 24.925484 62.165510 483.894250
2025-01-26 4.398475 6.127581 9.013675 14.951502 30.132777 90.641681 3231.206887
2025-02-02 4.361274 6.141926 9.175407 15.622964 33.150251 114.758913 NaN
2025-02-09 4.143648 5.844034 8.748863 14.950785 31.956883 112.997045 NaN
2025-02-16 4.019136 5.697140 8.591400 14.867811 32.608945 124.575285 NaN
2025-02-23 3.886606 5.530461 8.386661 14.655216 32.800105 133.582939 NaN
2025-03-02 3.785054 5.411897 8.264670 14.621541 33.594232 149.316967 NaN
2025-03-09 3.713916 5.341999 8.229946 14.789826 35.157505 176.563266 NaN
2025-03-16 3.585666 5.167882 7.985357 14.426997 34.702326 182.279245 NaN